India could unlock more than USD 1.5 billion in wheat export revenue following a convergence of three favourable conditions: record domestic production, historically elevated government stocks, and a policy shift reclassifying specified wheat and wheat flour products from “Prohibited” to “Free” export status in August 2026. The opportunity is assessed by the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM).
Wheat output in 2025-26 reached 121 million tonnes (MMT) — a national record — against estimated domestic consumption of approximately 111 MMT, generating a 10 MMT surplus. Central Pool wheat stocks as of May 28, 2026 stood at 51.3 MMT, nearly double the prescribed July 1 buffer norm of 27.5 MMT. India also holds a price advantage: its minimum support price of approximately USD 268 per tonne compares favourably against the international benchmark of approximately USD 303 per tonne in May 2026.
India Wheat Export Opportunity — Supply and Market Context
Parameter
Figure / Status
Record production 2025-26
121 MMT
Estimated domestic consumption
~111 MMT
Central Pool stocks (May 28, 2026)
51.3 MMT
Prescribed buffer norm (July 1)
27.5 MMT — stocks nearly double the norm
India MSP (wheat)
~USD 268/tonne
International wheat price (May 2026)
~USD 303/tonne — India has price advantage
USDA global production forecast (2026-27)
819 MMT — down from 844 MMT in 2025-26
Export policy change (August 2026)
Wheat + wheat flour moved from Prohibited to Free
Earlier Feb 2026 authorisation
2.5 MMT wheat + 500,000 tonnes wheat products
Top target markets
Egypt, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Algeria, Philippines
Value-added products included
Atta, maida, semolina — not just bulk grain
ASSOCHAM identifies Egypt, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Algeria, and the Philippines as priority export destinations. Bangladesh is already showing elevated demand following the August policy relaxation. For bulk freight operators and agri-logistics specialists, the wheat export window will drive demand for bulk vessel capacity, port evacuation services, and inland grain movement from major production states — Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh — to maritime gateways.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can India export wheat in 2026?
Yes. India changed wheat export policy in August 2026, moving wheat and wheat flour products from “Prohibited” to “Free” export status. With 121 MMT record production, ~10 MMT surplus over domestic consumption, and Central Pool stocks of 51.3 MMT (nearly double the buffer norm), India has strong exportable surplus. India’s MSP of ~USD 268/tonne competes against the global price of ~USD 303/tonne. Priority markets include Egypt, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Algeria, and the Philippines.
Which ports and routes will handle India wheat exports?
Wheat exports typically move through Kandla, Mundra, and Vizag for bulk grain, and through JNPT and Nhava Sheva for containerised wheat products (atta, maida, semolina). Inland evacuation from Punjab and Haryana relies heavily on rail via Northern Railway, with Ludhiana and Amritsar ICDs serving as key consolidation points. For Egypt and North Africa, vessels typically call at Mediterranean-range ports after transiting the Suez Canal.
