India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, is poised to export up to 900,000 tonnes of sugar by September 2025, following the government’s green light to export 1 million tonnes earlier this year.
Between January 20 and mid-July, exports have already reached 650,000–700,000 tonnes, with strong demand from countries like Somalia, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Djibouti, UAE, Libya, and Tanzania.
Key Highlights:
- Export Quota: Over 500 sugar mills have received quotas amounting to 3% of their average 3-year production.
- Export Viability: Indian sugar becomes export-viable when global prices exceed USD 502/tonne. Current international prices (~USD 484/tonne) are below this level, while domestic prices remain at USD 430–450/tonne.
- Global Market Trends: White sugar prices in London peaked at USD 555/tonne in Feb, but have since dropped due to improved global supply.
- Future Outlook: Despite price dips, industry leaders are optimistic:
- Deepak Ballani (ISMA) forecasts 800,000 tonnes by September.
- Prakash Naiknavare (NFCSF) pegs it at 900,000 tonnes.
Domestic Production & Consumption:
- 2024–25 Sugar Output: Estimated at 26 million tonnes, including a special crushing season in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.
- Domestic Consumption: Expected at 28 million tonnes, with an opening stock of 8 million tonnes and a closing stock of around 5.2–5.3 million tonnes—indicating healthy buffer levels.
Promising 2025–26 Season Ahead:
- Favourable monsoons and improved cane cultivation across Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Uttar Pradesh signal a strong upcoming season.
- Crisil Forecast: 15% rise in sugar output to 35 million tonnes in 2026, which could fuel both ethanol blending goals and revive export momentum.